New research from NORC at the University of Chicago identifies approximately 6.5 million older adults—about 12% of the over-65 population—who are caught in a “middle market” gap: they have too many assets to qualify for Medicaid, but not enough to afford their long-term care needs.
NORC researchers show these individuals qualify for Medicare because of their age, but just miss the low-income requirements of Medicaid, so they do not receive needed long-term services and support as they age.
The new analysis expands on NORC’s “Forgotten Middle” research, supported by The SCAN Foundation, suggesting that this at-risk population will likely continue to face limited options for their long-term care needs, unless policymakers take action.
“This research exposes a critical gap in our current system of funding long-term care. As a growing number of Americans reach older age, future policy should be informed by data around the needs of the most vulnerable older adults.”—Dianne Munevar, vice president of Health Care Strategy, NORC.
“Nearly 7 million older adults live in a perilous financial situation, which can be hazardous to not just finances, but health care and access, too. Real policy change and relief for Near Duals is urgently needed so they can receive the necessary long-term care needed to age in their homes, safely and surrounded by community.”—Narda Ipakchi, vice president of policy, The SCAN Foundation.
Read the full press release.
Explore the findings.
About the Data
The analysis is NORC’s fourth follow-up to its landmark 2019 Forgotten Middle study. NORC’s Health Care Strategy team used 2021 data to identify a new cohort of older adults called “Near Duals” who are not eligible to use Medicaid’s long-term services and support yet experience similar financial, health, and functional needs as those who are eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) and Medicare enrollment and claims files, researchers analyzed transitions to full dual eligibility over time and examined trends in their health care coverage.###About NORC at the University of Chicago NORC at the University of Chicago conducts research and analysis that decision-makers trust. As a nonpartisan research organization and a pioneer in measuring and understanding the world, NORC has studied almost every aspect of the human experience and every major news event for more than eight decades. Today, NORC partners with government, corporate, and nonprofit clients around the world to provide the objectivity and expertise necessary to inform the critical decisions facing society.
Please visit www.norc.org for more information.
About The SCAN Foundation
The SCAN Foundation envisions a society where all of us can age well with purpose. We pursue this vision by igniting bold and equitable changes in how older adults age in both home and community. For more information, please visit https://www.thescanfoundation.org/